Author: Gavin Lee
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Doomsday Math: The “fat-tail” risks of climate change
Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity An important tool used to estimate the magnitude of future climate change is the Equilibrium Climate Sensitivity (ECS), which is the eventual temperature increase resulting from a doubling in atmospheric carbon dioxide (Figure 1). In 1906 Svante Arrhenius calculated ECS as 4°C (Andrei G. 1998), which aligns remarkably well with the Intergovernmental…