Nature’s Seismometers: Can animals predict earthquakes better than we can?

Earthquakes have had worldwide implications: destroying infrastructure, displacing populations, and disrupting society. Earthquakes are particularly devastating because they cannot be predicted. What if there was a way to warn communities using the very animals that live within them? An early account from 373 BC reports that burrowing animals (like snakes, weasels, and rats) fled to seek shelter before the onset of a destructive earthquake in Greece (USGS Earthquake Hazards Program, n.d.). But can this information be used in real time, or will it remain a retrospective truth?

Before surface waves are felt by humans, body primary (P) and secondary (S) waves travel through the Earth at a more rapid rate. Modern seismometers can detect these body waves, and triangulation technology is used to locate the epicenter of the earthquake. The time difference between the arrival of these body waves and the surface waves, however, is not significant enough to warn communities of the onset of destructive vibrations.

Some evidence suggests that some animals in seismically active regions have evolved a response occurring during the S-P interval and may have increased sensitivity to precursor earthquake signals (Kirschvink 2000). Elephants, for instance, have been reported to detect low-frequency emissions caused by the breaking of a tsunami (Garstang and Kelley 2017), and Chinese studies as far back as the 1960s researched the usefulness of bio-monitoring seismic activity (Fan 2018).

Researchers from the Max Planck Institute of Animal Behaviour tagged cows, sheep, and dogs in earthquake-prone regions of Northern Italy to observe their activity (Wikelski and Müller 2020). They found that collective abnormal behavioural patterns emerged hours leading up to an earthquake, and that the behavioural change occurred earlier in groups closer to the epicenter. Although the earthquake precursors that trigger the responses have not been identified, hypotheses go as far as to include that animals may sense air ionization at pressurized rock surfaces (Wikelski et al. 2020).

The findings of this study align with the collective behaviour theory, because the animals’ individual anticipatory behaviours were amplified by the reactions of those around them (Averett 2020). Many animal species have collective cognition which allows them to act as a group for the good of the group (Couzin 2008). This response allows animals to sense and adapt to their environment by processing more information than just one individual could on its own. The collective reaction is less likely to be influenced by individual error, increasing the accuracy of the responses (Couzin 2008). This phenomenon is observed in schools of fish, flocks of birds, and, it seems, in farm animals in response to earthquake precursor signals.

Although animals have been shown to exhibit abnormal behaviour leading up to seismic activity, is it plausible to use them as earthquake predictors to warn entire civilizations? Relying on human understanding and interpretation of natural instincts would present its own set of challenges. By furthering our knowledge of behavioural psychology and earthquake precursor signals, we can learn to appreciate (and maybe even make use of) nature’s early-warning systems that live among us!

References

Averett, Nancy. 2020. “Do Animals Really Anticipate Earthquakes? Sensors Hint They Do.” Scientific American, July 31, 2020. https://www.scientificamerican.com/article/do-animals-really-anticipate-earthquakes-sensors-hint-they-do/.

Couzin, Iain D. 2008. “Collective Cognition in Animal Groups.” Trends in Cognitive Sciences 13 (1): 36–43. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tics.2008.10.002.

Fan, Fa-Ti. 2018. “Can Animals Predict Earthquakes?: Bio-sentinels as Seismic Sensors in Communist China and Beyond.” Studies in History and Philosophy of Science Part A 70 (May): 58–69. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.shpsa.2018.05.009.

Garstang, Michael, and Michael Kelley. 2017. “Understanding Animal Detection of Precursor Earthquake Sounds.” Animals 7 (9): 66. https://doi.org/10.3390/ani7090066.

Kirschvink, J. L. 2000. “Earthquake Prediction by Animals: Evolution and Sensory Perception.” Bulletin of the Seismological Society of America 90 (2): 312–23. https://doi.org/10.1785/0119980114.

USGS Earthquake Hazards Program. n.d. “Animals & Earthquake Prediction.” USGS. https://www.usgs.gov/programs/earthquake-hazards/animals-earthquake-prediction.

Wikelski, Martin, Uschi Mueller, Paola Scocco, Andrea Catorci, Lev V. Desinov, Mikhail Y. Belyaev, Daniel Keim, Winfried Pohlmeier, Gerhard Fechteler, and P. Martin Mai. 2020. “Potential Short‐term Earthquake Forecasting by Farm Animal Monitoring.” Ethology 126 (9): 931–41. https://doi.org/10.1111/eth.13078.

Wikelski, Martin, and Uschi Müller. 2020. “An Early Warning System for Earthquakes?” Max-Planck-Gesellschaft. July 3, 2020. Accessed October 24, 2026. https://www.mpg.de/15126191/an-early-warning-system-for-earthquakes.